Not too long ago, EVE Online was the first video game developer to hire it's very own full-time economist, Dr. Eyjolfur Gudmundsson, promising he'll monitor inflation and markets. Earlier this month, Dr. Gudmundsson released his first 'market report'. In it, he provides an in-depth examination of EVE's mineral market (minerals are the basis for everything in EVE Online). His conclusion:
Overall trade quantity and volume has increased dramatically over the last 3 years and the price of minerals has fallen considerably due to increased mining efficiency through better tactics and improved technology. The price formation has also improved showing that price difference between regions is becoming minimal in Empire space and reflects only the time value of moving minerals in low sec. However, smaller population and the risk of piracy in zero-zero space results in less efficient markets with low volumes and great fluctuations in prices given an arbitrage trade opportunity for the brave entrepreneur.
This descriptive account has revealed several interesting facts which will warrant further examination in the future. Doing a wide scale comparison of prices in different regions, calculating implied travel costs and risk premiums for individual regions would be interesting for the professional trader who wishes to maximize his profits when margins are dropping. It will also be interesting to further examine exactly how the demand for capital ships affects the mineral market and to look into inventory numbers of minerals in order to see if traders are trying to manipulate the market by stockpiling and dumping minerals.
I applaud EVE Online's effort in collecting and analyzing it's in-game data. I predict we will be seeing more economists hired by online gaming developers as the next generation of MMORPGs are developed. Or even better, perhaps developers will start releasing full in-game statistics to allow economists to perform their own research. Macroeconomics is one of the few sciences where it is far too costly to experiment in 'real life'; large-scale virtual economies appear to provide the solution to this problem.